Over the past month numerous social media outlets have released articles with titles that state either the Democratic or Republican Party is about to shrivel into non existence. Which could not be further from the truth.
I have seen at least one article a week with either premise, all which ignore the reality of the nation. Mainstream media has crafted their coverage in such a way that they are no longer checks on the government; more often than not, their only concern is ratings. Which is why GOP candidates challenge debate moderators that ask somewhat challenging questions, they know networks will eventually capitulate and stop asking difficult questions.
With Mainstream media choosing to not challenge policy positions, what danger does a party have at becoming irrelevant? While the GOP has encountered issues winning national elections; their message is only resonating with the far right wing of the party, while alienating minorities. They still hold the majority of state legislators and thanks to gerrymandering have created a number of safe Republican districts in Congressional races.
Even with their issues among Latino voters; exacerbated by rhetoric from Donald Trump, the GOP still has enough support to be a consistently strong statewide party. Their framing of Latino’s and their refusal to tackle comprehensive immigration makes it extremely difficult to predict national success in the near future. Especially with recent polling numbers indicating the party still has a serious problem connecting with the Latino population.
To those that have stated the Democratic party is in danger of collapsing will point to state legislators, current United State Congress numbers, and tie that into how the Presidential map will become more difficult. Their first two points can easily be refuted by looking at the raw voting numbers in state wide elections.
In Pennsylvania, one state in which the GOP drew the congressional districts in a brazenly partisan way, Democratic candidates collected 44 percent of the vote, yet Democratic candidates won only five House seats out of eighteen. In other words, Democrats secured only 27 percent of Pennsylvania’s congressional seats despite winning nearly half of the votes.
He provides insight into the North Carolina results as well:
A similar dynamic played in North Carolina, another state in which GOP control in 2011 created intensely partisan congressional boundaries. In the 2014 midterm elections, Democrats in North Carolina secured only three out of thirteen seats (23 percent of NC’s congressional delegation) even though Democratic candidates in that state won about 44 percent of the vote.
The notion that the legislature trends will ultimately become problematic at a national level for the Democratic Party doesn’t have factual support. The party has secured 242 Electoral College votes by winning 18 states in the past six elections. While that doesn’t guarantee an upcoming Presidential victory, it absolutely defeats the notion that the party is close to dissolving.
While each party has their internal problems, it is a bit irresponsible to claim either party is on the brink of disappearing into obscurity. On contrary, arguments can be made that neither party has ever been more entrenched in American society than they are currently.
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